Friday, February 26, 2010

Afghanistan, February, 2010 - The Big Picture

The Boston Globe


  1. The big picture is:

    -at least 88% or more Afghans in every public opinion poll taken since 2001 (more than 90% in the most recent one) oppose the Taliban.

    -The ANA (Afghan National Army) is by far the most popular institution in every public opinion poll ever taken

    -The Taliban murdered 1920 Afghan Police officers in the first 11 months of 2011 alone

    -Afghans are furious with the Taliban for murdering so many of their police and army

    -It is widely believed by Afghans that the West backs the Taliban and Al Qaeda against the Afghan people and their beloved ANA; which fuels deep anger among Afghans at the west.

    -The Taliban have several times as much annual revenue as the entire Afghan government does. Afghans often ask why this is. Afghans often wonder why the Taliban pays their soldiers more than the ANA pays its soldiers.

    Many Afghans have come to the conclusion that Westerners must be paying the Taliban and Al Qaeda in their sinister bid to destroy the Afghan people.

    In this documentary that first aired a few days ago:
    The ringleader who is in charge of the Taliban in Baghlan is an Arab who takes orders from pakistan. Many of the fighters are Arab, Chechen, Uzbek or Pakistani. They were in constant communications with their higher ups in Pakistan.

    Afghans detest these Taliban foreign invaders; and will smash these Taliban and Al Qaeda, no matter how much the West, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or anyone else back them.

    The Afghans will win their freedom.

    If that imperialistic arrogant hegemonistic Jemmy Hope is any reflection of the Brits; then the Brits should get the hell out of Afghanistan and stop backing the Taliban agianst the Afghan people and their beloved ANA.

  2. Gee, I was starting to miss the propaganda..

  3. What are you talking about?

    What propoganda? Please name one piece of propoganda.

    Read the link if you want TGIA. Many Chechan, Uzbeck, Arab and Pakistani fighters are videotaped on film. They don't cover their faces or mask their voices. The person in charge in the Frontline special is an Arab who seemed to take orders from Pakistan.

    There is immense and visceral anger against Sunni Arabs among Afghans. [For that matter, anti Sunni Arab sentiment is strong among Indonesian muslims, Malaysian muslims, Indian muslims, Iranian muslims, non Arabs in general.]

    Is this unfair. Absolutely. Is this wrong. Obviously. TGIA, this anti Arab sentiment is extremely dangerous. If you don't believe me TGIA, ask non Arab muslims this question directly. Better yet, make an anti Arab comment, and watch the agreement around you.

    Is this racism. YES. It is racism and immoral. Racism is prevelant around the world today. It is an enormous problem among British people. America and Canada are much better than Britian; but racism is a huge challenge for America.

    Anti Arab racism among non Arab muslims is also a large global challenge.

    Do you really denay that many Afghans believe that the West backs the Taliban and Al Qaeda? Seriously?

    To change the topic:

    How can any serious person with any understanding of Iraq deny that the Sunni Arab militias in Iraq did not have many embedded combat advisors and leaders from Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia?

    Many Baathist senior officers in the Syrian Army served as leaders and organizers of the Sunni Arab militias. One proof of this was the way many Iraqi Sunni Arabs hated the resistance fighters, and regarded them as foreign quislings. Why do you think Iraqi Sunni Arabs helped the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police fight the Sunni Arab militias?

    There were many public statements made by the Iraqi Army in 2006 regarding Syrian involvement with the Iraqi Sunni Arab militias.

    What is also probable is that some type of deal has been struck between the Iraqi Government and the Sunni Arab dictators. This is a contributing factor to why attacks against the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police are down by about 95%. [Notice that non US coalition brigades in Iraq have fallen from 6 to 0; and US brigades have fallen from 24 to 9.] This agreement is why the Iraqi Government no longer talks about the conspiracy of the neighbors to destroy Iraq.

  4. <span><span>The big picture is:</span></span>
    <span>The Afghan National Army (ANA) is decomposing even as the US is trying to breathe life into it. Plans for the rapid expansion of the ANA are being held back by an annual desertion rate that is 25 percent and rising.</span>
    <span>American troop morale has “dropped sharply because of increased fighting and multiple deployments.” An Army survey found that the number of units reporting high or very high morale fell from an already low 10.2 percent in 2007 to 5.7 percent last year.</span>
    <span><span> </span></span>
    <span><span></span></span><span>Public support for the war in the US dropped from 46 percent to 39 percent, reflecting the rise in casualties and costs—as well as the spectacle of a brazenly rigged Afghan election in August.</span>
    <span>The annual cost for the war is set to double, from about $50 billion in 2005 to some $100 billion in 2010.</span>
    <span><span> </span></span>

  5. <span>"one reason Afghan villagers prefer to deal with the Taliban rather than the government security forces is that the latter have a habit of seizing their sons at checkpoints and sodomizing them."</span>

  6. Unfortunately, the practice of Sodomizing boys is widespread in Central and South asia, probably in the Arab world too.

    It is not something Central or South Asians are proud of.

    The Afghan National Police and Taliban are no exceptions to this pattern; both sodomize boys at an outrageous rate.

    I'll share something. ISAF soldiers who serve as embedded advisors in the ANSF are worried about this problem and talk about it at great lenght. The "prettier" boys are targetted more than others. Dealing with these issues is extremely challenging since the ANSF is an allied military force with its own chain of command that doesn't look kindly to outside interference . . .  even by its friends.

  7. r.s. I really don't know where you make this stuff up from.

    The ANA does not have a high desertion, AWOL, attrition rate.

    Only one ANA Corps use to, 205th ANA Corps in the South; but it this problem is being fixed.

    Today the ANA has 104,000. A year from now the ANA will likely have about 160,000 troops. The funding to expand the ANA was only approved in late November, 2009.

    Note that the Afghan government only collects $600 million a year in tax revenue; versus steady state expenditures of more than $10,000 million a year.

    The Taliban by contrast collects several billion dollars a year in revenue, much of it from Arabs and Pakistanis. Many Afghans suspect that Westerners also pay the Taliban/Al Qaeda. Afghans wonder how the Taliban could be getting so much money if this was not the case.

    Remember that the Taliban pays their soldiers more than the Afghan National Police (ANP) and Afghan National Army (ANA) do.

  8. Cockburn relates that Eikenberry did not support sending more troops to prop up a corrupt government, but was dismayed that money was not flowing into Afghanistan. If the government is too corrupt, how are they going to handle more aid money? Hmmm... corruptly, maybe?

    My heart aches for those poor people but really, it is a hopeless situation.

  9. VZA, how is it hopeless? Many countries around the world are deeply corrupt, including every Arab country, Brazil, Mexico, India, China, Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea.

    Many deeply corrupt countries are highly successful.

    What should really concern you VZA, is that the entire government of Afghanistan (GIRoA) only has $600 million in annual revenues; versus the several billion dollars in annual revenue the Taliban gets.

    Much of this money is given to the Taliban and Al Qaeda by Gulf Sunni Arabs and Pakistanis.

    VZA, the Afghans will fight the foreign invasion of their country by Al Qaeda and the Taliban for as long as it takes; even if it take generations and millions of dead.

    The Arabs and Pakistanis are powerful. The Afghans cannot defeat them by themselves; however nor can the Arabs and Pakistanis defeat the Afghans (through their Al Qaeda and Taliban proxies.)

    The Arabs and Pakistanis created the Taliban in 1994, and with their special forces and money; overran most of Afghanistan for them. However, the Afghans continued to fight for their freedom.

    In a matter of weeks in October, 2001, the Afghans won their freedom.

    Remember that when the Taliban surrendered (and moved back to Pakistan) in November, 2001; there were only 326 US special forces, 147 US CIA, hundreds of Iranian special forces, some Russian special forces, some Indian special forces, some Turkish special forces, some European/Canadian special forces, fighting along the Afghan freedom fighters. The Afghans defeated the Taliban mostly on their own.

    The world refused to give the Afghans the money to defend themselves 2001-2007. The world refused to fund the ANA. Rumsfeld blocked funding for the Afghan security forces until the day he was fired.

    In late November, 2009, at last, Obama decided to give the ANSF appropriate funding. Now that the ANA have the money; and they will smash the Taliban and their foreign allies (Chechans, Uzbeks, Uighar, Arab and Pakistani.)

    The Afghans are currently training 7 thousands ANA a month, or 84,000 a year. How can the ANA lose with that kind of capacity?

    I think it is tragic that team Biden, Holbrooke, Flemming, Eikenberry, and others pushed Obama to rlimit funding for the ANA until November 2009.

  10. No links no credibility.. Why should I believe everything you post? Put up links and I'll make up my mind.

  11. <span>r.s. I really don't know where you make this stuff up from.  The ANA does not have a high desertion, AWOL, attrition rate."  
    There you go! You're caught in a lie again!

    The available combat force was only 46,000 in September 2009, less than one-fifth the size that military planners say is necessary - although US officials inflated the number to 93,000 by such tricks as counting soldiers who are absent without leave. Analysts at Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas, have concluded that if current trends continue, the ANA will be unable to grow larger than 100,000 troops, because desertion rates will then equal recruitment rates.

  12. Links on what? What specifically do you question?

    I think the only way you would be convinced would be conversations with Iraqi Army commanding officers in Arabic. Anything less and you would question it.

    TGIA, who funded the Sunni Arab militias 2003-2007 (when apparently Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Egypt may have changed their attitude)? How did they kill 15,000 or so IA and IP. Not to mention more than 3,000 foreign troops and many thousands of Iranian backed Shiite militias.

    Who lead them? Where did they derive command and control from?

    It defies common sense the assert that the Arab dictatorships were not deeply involved.

  13. <span>I'm not close to forgetting the claim you made that "the Iraqi army  smashed  the Syrian army" only to retract later and say a few Syrian officers were involved... 
    I'll never believe anything you say ever again unless you put a specific link to a specific bit of information..No links no credibility.

  14. Who  do you think you're addressing here, toddlers?

  15. "A liar begins with making falsehood appear like truth and ends with making truth itself appear like falsehood.<span>" -</span> William Shenstone