Saturday, May 23, 2009
The US Plays Again The Sectarian Card: Provoking the Inevitable
On Monday, Iraqi government security forces arrested two prominent Sunni leaders in Iraq's volatile Diyala Province. One of them, Sheikh Riyadh al-Mujami, not coincidentally, is a prominent leader in the local Sahwa (Sons of Iraq), the 100,000-strong Sunni militia that was set up by the US military to quell attacks against occupation forces and launch an effort to battle al-Qaeda in Iraq. Both of those objectives were accomplished, but these efforts are being erased by ongoing missions by Iraqi government security forces, sometimes backed by the US military, to kill or capture both Sahwa leadership and fighters. The results of these attacks against the Sahwa are already evident in an escalation in violence that has taken two forms - a dramatic increase in spectacular attacks against Iraqi civilians and increasing attacks against occupation forces.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Thanks for stepping up Moyhabin, congratulations everyone!
ReplyDeleteHow about you r.s?
ReplyDeleteMolly, why did you leave?
ReplyDeleteSaif?
Moy, there hasn't been a pick up in violent attacks against the MNF-I. In fact, those attacks remain at reord lows. If anything, it looks like May, 2009, might be the lowest month on record. However, attacks against the MNF-I are no longer the most important barameter of violence in Iraq. Attacks against the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police are the most important barometer.
I have seen no evidence of a pickup in violent incidents against the Iraqi Army or Iraqi Police either (a significant majority of violent attacks are against them.) However, it is harder to acertain this number since the Iraqi Government has recently signficantly restricted information about the ISF.
There have been a few high profile attacks against civilian population centers. However, the toatal number of actual incidents remain small (the overwhelming majority of attacks against the Iraqi Army or Iraqi Police do not result in IA or IP deaths.)
There hasn't been an uptick in violent incidents. There have been more spectacular terrorist attacks however.
Why are you always trying to deny the obvious Anand? Things in Iraq are in flux and they remain unpredictable, so please try to be less congratulatory of something that is mostly a creature of changing circumstances. Pax Americana in Iraq is mostly a farfethched mediatic blitzkrieg founded upon unstable alliances and impossible deals.
ReplyDeleteI would like to petition for Molly to come back to the blog. :) Will everyone join me in asking her to come back?
ReplyDeleteMoy, I don't know what you mean by PAX Americana. Iraq is being decided by the Iraqis.
When oil prices were $32 a barrel, there were real concerns about whether Iraq could make it. But now that the global economy is slowly improving, and oil is at $62/barrel, the Iraqi Government budget deficit is down sharply.
Is there any organized milita in Iraq today that is systematically attacking the Iraqi Army? To a limited degree this is happening in Mosul (with Asad backed militants), however nowhere else.
Iraq has significantly lower per capita violence at this moment than South Africa (3,000 violent deaths a month), Venezuala, Brazil or Mexico. The only way I see this changing is if the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police are not ready to assume more responsiblity from the MNF-I. Maybe you feel this way.
I do not feel this way. I think the ISF is ready. So do thousands of advisors embedded with them.
Moy, for someone to believe that violence in Iraq will increase, they must have a low opinion of the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police. Why do <span style="text-decoration: underline;">YOU</span> think the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police are not ready? This is ultimately a technical question. Please be specific in your answers.
ReplyDeleteCurrently there are 14 divisions in the Iraqi Army (plus 2 more divisions that may be standing up.) Which of these 14 divisions do you think is not high quality, and why? Again, please be specific.
Why do <span style="text-decoration: underline;">YOU</span> think the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police are not ready?
ReplyDelete----------------------------------
I'm not sure, but I have the impression they are not so effective as you wish. Otherwise, why have hundreds of thousands of US troops still stationed in Iraq?
ReplyDeleteI think the ISF is ready. So do thousands of advisors embedded with them.
----------------------------------
Of course...how could I be so foolish to doubt you or thousands of advisors who are perfectly objective in their assessment?
Silly me :)
"Moy, I don't know what you mean by PAX Americana." ass anand
ReplyDeleteI am sure Moy meant this as a sarcastic deragatory term, I call them the Pox Americana - so there is no mistaking my disdain.
Less than 10 percent of Iraqi Army battalions are cabable of executing counter-insurgency operations.
ReplyDeleteI am sure Moy meant this as a term of sarcasm, however I call them Pox Americana so there is no mistakinjg my disdain. As for the term itself, this just shows (by your question) your complete historical ineptitude, and why you should not even be commenting at all anand.
ReplyDeleteWell of course R.S., but when has that stopped anand from his fetid fulminations? Once a dumb ass always a dumb ass I say, and a perfect case scenario is the constant hog wash that flows from this pigs mouth.
ReplyDeleteanand
ReplyDelete<span style="color: #404040; ">Iraq is being decided by the Iraqis. ---------</span>
know anand ,where did you get this idea from ?
ah..I think you think Iraqis are fools. Only one of them is . Not all .
<span style="color: #404040; ">anand
ReplyDelete<span style="color: #404040;">Iraq is being decided by the Iraqis. ---------</span>
Now anand ,where did you get this idea from ?
ah..I think you think Iraqis are fools.</span>
<span style="color: #404040; "> Only one of them is . Not all . </span>
r.s. Stop lying. You are knowingly lying.
ReplyDeleteThe Iraqi Government no longer distributes this type of data on its combat manouver battalions; but during the last official update 2/3rds of Iraqi Army battalions were ORA level 2 or better.
Moy, it is a matter of numbers and specific capabilities. The {IA + MNF-I} needs about 350,000. It has only now reached that number. (250,000 IA + 110,000 MNF-I.)
ReplyDeleteLate last summer, the Iraqi Ministry of Defense ran short of money. To save money they enforced a hiring freeze, and stopped basic training. They also reduced the {assigned/authorized} ratio in Iraqi combat manouver battalions from 135% and 120% to 100%. The IA also stopped producing new brigades.
The IA cancelled or delayed most of its procurement budget to save money.
All of this has significantly delayed the standing up of specific capabilities of the Iraqi Army.
However, if oil can stay above $60, my hope is that the Iraqi Goverment will undo some of the spending cuts in the Iraqi Army.
If the Iraqi Government and US taxpayers had funded the Iraqi Army properly 2003 to the present, US troops could have mostly pulled out long ago.
VAA, what in the world is that suppose to mean? We all have agency and determine our own fates.
ReplyDeleteThe faster the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police stand up, the quicker the Iraqi Goverment will draw down the foreign troops. This has been the position of the Iraqi Goverment since June 2004. Unfortunately, the Iraqi Government has consistently underfunded their army and police.
Pentagon report: 90 percent of Iraq Army not self-sufficient
ReplyDeletehttp://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/ss_iraq0041_01_15.asp
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style=" "> </span><span style=" color: #404040; font-family: Verdana;">Pentagon report: 90 percent of Iraq Army not self-sufficient</span>
ReplyDelete<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style=" color: #404040; font-family: Verdana;">http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/ss_iraq0041_01_15.asp</span>
Game over you lose.
ReplyDeleter.s. Your jealousy of the lions in the Iraqi Army is very ugly. If you feel inferior to them, that is your problem, not theirs.
ReplyDeleteDo you understand what C-1 rating means? That is the highest possible rating for a unit. In the 1980s, about one tenth of the Soviet Army was rated C-1. That is the same ratio as the Iraqi Army had in the quarterly report you cited.
The Soviets fought the entire Afghan War in the 1980s with mostly C-2 and C-3 units. The US fought WWII with primarily C-2 and C-3 units.
By design there are very few C-1 Iraqi Army units. Whenever a unit hits C-1 status, many of its best officers and NCOs are taken from it and used to seed new units. After a year when the unit again his C-1 status, the same process is repeated. Units do not hit C-1 status by design.
The IA continues to have a major shortage of mid gradeofficers and senior NCOs. {It takes an officer 3 to 7 years to become a mid grade officer. It takes a similar amount of time for a private.} This shortage will quickly correct itself with time.
Only a fifth of the previous officers of the IA (under Saddam) met the intense quality requirements to serve in the new Iraqi Army. The rest had to be grown organically. Unfortunately the IA wasn't creating enough 2nd Lietenants and NCOs until 2006 (because the Iraqi Government and US taxpayers refused to fund them.) As a result the IA has a surplus of junior officers and NCOs, but a shortage of high quality mid grade ones.
A deeply unfair cast of mind.
ReplyDelete