An experienced journalist or politician never makes such a prediction without leaving a loophole for himself. He puts in an inconspicuous “unless”. If his forecast goes awry, he points to that loophole.
I do have some experience – some 60 or so years of it – but I did not leave any loophole. I said No War, and now General Gantz says the same in so many words. No Tehran, just poor little Gaza.
Why? Because of that one word: Hormuz.
Not the ancient Persian god Hormuzd, but the narrow strait that is the entrance and exit of the Persian Gulf, through which 20% of the world’s oil (and 35% of the sea-borne oil) flows. My contention was that no sane (or even mildly insane) leader would risk the closing of the strait, because the economic consequences would be catastrophic, even apocalyptic."
Obama is unlikely to attack. But KSA, UAE, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Turkey, Europe are another matter.
ReplyDeleteIran's air force, air defence and navy are obsolete. They can't significantly disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf even if they want to.
<span><span>Obama is unlikely to attack. But KSA, UAE, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Turkey, Europe are another matter. </span>
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You forgot Guatemala, Mozambique, Iceland, Greenland and Monaco, knucklehead..
<span><span>They can't significantly disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf even if they want to.</span>
ReplyDeleteAre you brain dead or just pretending? <span>What Oil Tanker captain will sail through the Strait of Hormuz with missiles, even "obsolete", flying around? Tankers will be a prime target and they have no manouverability, they're sitting ducks. </span><span>Even the most crude style missiles would be enough to do damage. How are they going to be protected, O military genius? </span></span>
You're also forgetting that it takes few inflattables and zodiacs to cause significant damage to anything floating around.
TGIA, Iran tried to clock the Straights of Hormuz in the 1980s, remember? The combined GCC/European/US navies and air force were able to protect Persian gulf shipping. When Iran tried to attack, much of their navy and air force was knocked out.
ReplyDeleteIran has been under military sanctions for a long time. The Russians and Chinese have refused to supply any cutting edge military equipment to Iran. Look up the OOB of the Iranian air force, Iranian navy on your own.
What ground based missile system do you think Iran can use? If they fire from the ground, don't you think there would be air strikes against Iran?
Iranian ground based missiles are deeply inaccurate. They would have to plot where the ship would be 15 minutes from now and hope to aim a missile within a 1/4 mile of the moving ship. Even that would be tough for Iran.
ReplyDeleteHave you looked up the GCC airforces and compared them to the Iranian air force? Iran isn't in the same league.
ReplyDeleteAll Iran would have to do is put a few mines into the Strait.
ReplyDeleteSshht..Don't tell this to our military expert on here, r.s. He thinks he got it all figured out. Iran can't do sh*t.
ReplyDeleteHow would the Iranian navy plant mines? Look, I have discussed this with friends from the Navy. US navy and other navies.
ReplyDeleteIran doesn't have the ability to lay mines in the Straight of Hormuz.
Dude, I support Iran joining NATO. Iraq, Afghanistan, India, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia too.
For a US Iranian alliance to come about [to kick Takfiri butt], we have got to stop all the insane arguments about Iran.
Iran and America share common interests more than 95% of the time. We need to come together.
TGIA, r.s.; please stop exxagerating the Iran threat in an attempt to facilitate conflict between America and Iran. If Israel, UAE and KSA decide to Iran, that is their choice. If Europe wants to help them, that is up to them. But please leave America out of it.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a war, then the US navy and US air force should focus on protecting the Persian Gulf international airspace and international waters.
The Iranian navy and air force would be dismantled in days. The Pakistani "advisors" in the KSA military are pretty good.
The Iranian people would probably kick Khamenei out of power to punish him for leading Iran to ruin. Then a good nice leader would take over. And Iran can become a superpower.
All the Iranians have to do is say they mined the Straight and all tanker traffic would stop immediately, quickly turning<span> the current festering financial crisis into a worldwide economic depression. Believe me, the last thing the world economy needs now is an oil-shock.</span>
ReplyDeleter.s. The Iranian navy tried to mine the Straights in the 1980s and failed miserably. The combined GCC, US and European navies and air forces were easily capable of protecting the gulf sea lanes and air space.
ReplyDeleteThe Iranian air force and navy have fallen even further behind the GCC, US, Europe [and China/India/Japan/South Korea] since then.
No one will let the straights be blocked. If they were, it would push China, India, Japan, South Korea, Europe, North America, South America into a severe depression. None of them will allow it.
Famous last words.
ReplyDelete<span>TGIA, r.s.; please stop exxagerating the Iran threat in an attempt to facilitate conflict between America and Iran.</span>
ReplyDeleteIt's scum like you and your ilk who are exagerating the Iranian threat, not me! Where did you see that I did, boofhead? Where?
Just when I thought you couldn't stoop any lower you just did! Tfooh!
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