Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Iran is too rational to attack Israel

Israel's policy makers now face a complicated dilemma regarding Iran's nuclear program: Should they work on the assumption that mutual deterrence of the Cold War variety is applicable to the Iranian situation?


For starters, the question is whether an Iran with a nuclear capability would act as a rational state. If it were impossible to deter Iran's leaders from firing nuclear bombs at Israel, since their deliberations and decisions would be irrational, a nuclear Iran would indeed pose an existential threat to Israel, one that Israel could never countenance.

Under such circumstances, there would apparently be no choice but to try to destroy Iran's nuclear program. In contrast, if we assume that the political leaders and ayatollahs in Tehran are rational, we could rely on Israel's deterrent powers and live under the shadow of an Iranian bomb.

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1 comment:

  1. Iran is very very good. No question. However Khamenei is mean and irrational. He oppresses and harms Iranians. The question is what Khamenei does. He is a threat against the world.

    However, Takfiri [backed by their Gulf Arab and Pakistani ISI allies] are a "Far Far" larger threat.

    This is why the Hitch publicly called for an alliance between Iran, NATO, Iraq. Afghanistan to fight Takfiri. The Hitch was right on this.