The tragedy of imperial retreat

When the US withdraws from Afghanistan, don't expect much help for the people it leaves behind.

When US troops withdrew from South Vietnam, many Vietnamese who had helped the US were left to their fates

Not so long ago, Western powers were doubling down on their commitment to Afghanistan. Dire warnings circulated about how the US "abandoned" the country after the Soviet retreat. This time, the West would stay and help Afghanistan achieve "stability". It would withdraw only when "indicators" found that the Taliban insurgency had been contained.

Now it is obvious that those indicators were set for President Obama's re-election campaign in 2012.

The course and timing of imperial retreats usually reflect circumstances in the imperial country, not the target country. It's about the US and the West, not Afghanistan. As ever, Vietnam is instructive.

The device by which the US withdrew from Indochina was the Paris Peace Accords of 1973. Provisions included a ceasefire between South and North Vietnamese forces, the return of US prisoners of war, and withdrawal of US troops.

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