By Ezzedine Choukri Fishere
Seen from outside, the Arab world looks like it is about to crumble. Four Arab states – Iraq, Sudan, Yemen and Somalia – are facing the threat of territorial disintegration. One country, Lebanon, has settled for losing its independence; another, Palestine, is losing hope to win it. The Arab League is unable to react effectively to any of these challenges, even when decision-making powers are transferred to it by the interested parties as the Palestinian president did recently.
Non-Arab states and non-state actors in the Middle East are becoming main political players. In contrast, traditional powers like Egypt and Saudi Arabia seem unable to project their influence in the region effectively, and have often had to content themselves with defensive postures or with playing the role of spoiler. In addition, most Arab states are faced with domestic challenges for which they seem ill-equipped. All this begs the question about whether the current Arab state system is sustainable.
Grand, sweeping narratives describing the rise and fall of regional powers have a certain attraction, but they are rarely accurate. In a mosaic-like region such as the Middle East, nuance and attention to detail are often useful. A closer look at the Arab state system shows that while some of these developments are new, most are new reflections of old dynamics.
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